“Second Life’s growth has slowed after a period of rapid expansion. Rosedale’s replacement will face the difficult task of regaining that momentum…” and
“The virtual world’s subscriber base and user hours are still increasing but at much lower rates than in late 2006 and early 2007, when a surge of attention brought droves of new users to Second Life.”
The article correctly points out that the rate of new registrations have been on a downward trend, that there are now over 13 million accounts, and there are “thought to be roughly 500,000 hard-core users.” Now in no way do I mean to suggest that public opinion of Second Life hasn’t drastically changed over the course of the last 2 years. However, perhaps there is a different way to look at the data besides the month-on-month registration growth quoted in the article. For starters, how many of these avatars actually spend quality time in world?
Since April of 2007 Maya Realities has observed around 450,000 unique avatars on 850+ regions. I’m asserting this data represents avatars that went out into Second Life and spent quality time. After all, these avatars actually had to get to someplace that Maya Realities analyzes traffic in order to be counted. It implies a certain purpose or intent. Rather than look at all 13 million avatars lets look at this subset.
This graph shows the number of avatars observed with a particular birthday. In other words, observed registration count. The spike around October 24th, 2007 was the statistical anomaly known as CSI:NY. Perhaps the recent downward trend seen in registrations is the result of the “avatar market” self correcting itself to get back in line with longer term growth rates. In essence, the Second Life platform (or society?) simply isn’t ready to sustain the abnormal growth rates observed as a result of CSI:NY. Lets take a closer look:
Applying a power trend line to observed registration data since April 2006 and cropping out the CSI spike, it seems that Second Life isn’t in that bad shape when it comes to new registrations. Granted new registrations show a downward trend since October 2007, however, is it that surprising considering the growth rate observed for October?
I for one congratulate Philip on an amazing job accomplished these last several years. Time will tell (and the data will likely show) how well his successor continues Linden Lab’s success. I take comfort in knowing Philip won’t be far removed from the decision making process.
Listening to the business voice mail has become a routine first thing in the morning. However, this morning was different. Apparently congressman Tom Cole wants to award me a congressional order of merit! Here is the transcribed voice mail and sound file:
“Hi. This message is for Mr. Eric Hackathorn. My name is Michelle Wong with Congressman Tom Cole and National Republic and Congressional Committee in Washington. I wanted to recognize you with our highest honor. The Congressional order of merit. I need to speak to you about this as soon as possible. Again, my name is Michelle Wong and my number is 1-888-383-4164. Please call me as soon as you get this message. Thank you and have a good day.”
Wow! Apparently my work in virtual worlds is being noticed! At least it would be in a perfect world where people actually care. However, before calling mom and with the good news I figured I’d do a little background search. Turns out I’m not the first person to receive such a unique offer. Ira Flatow from NPR’s Science Friday had an uncannily similar message on his voice mail and blogged about it here.
So apparently if I sign up to be a Republican they give me a congressional order of merit? No thanks, I think I’ll hold out for some cold hard cash. From the looks of it, order of merits just aren’t worth what they used to be.
As I sit here with less than an hour on the clock before the weekend, I realize this is not an average Friday. After over thirteen years in my current division, next Monday I’m being kicked out of the proverbial nest. Assuming I don’t hit the ground and splat, I’ve been tasked with creating a “virtual worlds” project for NOAA’s “Technology Outreach Branch.” Strange considering looking back I probably should have been fired. In fact, NOAA’s virtual world presence began because I was tired of “real” work and ready to call it a day.
Not surprisingly, there are no trumpets sounding or goodbye celebrations. Honestly, I think a lot of folks around here are irritated I wasn’t fired. Instead, I have the realization that I’ve now staked my career on what is basically unproven technology. Here’s to hoping that the concept of virtual worlds doesn’t blow up in my face.
Playing around with Second Life analytics, I came across an interesting trend that may or may not hold water after the blog treatment. Below is a graph of the birth date of an avatar vs one of three account types. These account types are no payment information on file, payment information on file but not used, and finally used payment information on file. Unless I’m mistaken, this graph suggests that after a year and a half you are almost guaranteed to spend money in Second Life.
During some initial discussion, the point was made that until June of 2006 providing a credit card was mandatory to sign up for a Second Life account. However, it seems this would only force older avatars into the second column rather than the more exciting third.
If valid, this graph has interesting applications when it comes to marketing and support. If you still show up after reaching the ripe old age of a year and a half in Second Life, you are an avatar where businesses should focus their attention. After all, nearly everyone in your age range is spending money in Second Life. Also, if you have a problem report for Linden Lab, perhaps they should give you more attention being a near-guaranteed paying customer.
Finally, taken to an extreme could this be a form of avatar age discrimination?
It was bound to happen eventually. I’ve been discovered buying “video game arcades” on the government dime. Before I’m sent to Guantanamo Bay how should I respond to this email?
Good Morning, Eric - On August 2, 2007, you made purchase card transactions in the amounts of $377.96 and $234.72 from Second Life, a video game arcades and establishments vendor. These transactions are being reviewed. Please explain what was purchased from this vendor.
Thanks,
Carolyn
Maya Realities is happy to announce a new $L1 Second Life analytics solution. This proximity sensor collects basic information about a land parcel and is perfect for those groups not ready to take the plunge into our premium services. The information collected includes the number of unique avatars visiting, total time spent on a land parcel, and average time spent per avatar.
If you decide to splurge a whole Linden, head over to our in-world shop, or your favorite virtual super-store and pick up a sensor! Next, perform the following steps to insure its success:
Rez the sensor and set the ownership of the sensor to the same as the land parcel. This prevents the collection of unauthorized data. Edit the sensor, and the ownership is shown on the first panel.
Set the description field to a number between 5 and 96, which represents the range of the sensor in meters. The default is 30 meters. By using a short range, you will have more accurate statistics in a given area. Avatars located on land parcels that you don’t own will not be monitored.
To view your statistics, just touch the sensor. Make sure your active group is the same as the sensor’s group.
Maya Realities will never divulge your personally identifiable information to third parties. If you are interested in learning more or about our premium services, please visit our in-world office at the SLURL below: http://slurl.com/secondlife/Jingbo/67/35/30/
As I desperately try to make the Maya Realities web site presentable, I thought I should post some updated examples of our analysis suite. These figures represent the first week of July 2007 for the entire Second Life sim of Midnight City. For subscribers to our service, both the date range and land parcel size are user specified during analysis.
I wonder how SlideShare comes through in an RSS feed…
What started as a weekend getaway with the National Science Foundation has turned into a nine day marathon with connections in more government agencies than I knew existed. Granted, the inner workings of Uncle Sam were never my forte, but by the time this trip is over I hope to have the unnecessary ability to pass immigration’s citizen exam. Below are the slides I am presenting regarding NOAA’s virtual makeover.
The concept of collective intelligence and the wisdom of crowds has been around for awhile, but rarely makes headwind into traditional science applications. I’d love to see the concept applied to weather models! Here is they layout:
Create an interface where visitors sign up for an account and provide basic social networking information. Next, they try to predict the upcoming weather. It doesn’t matter who they are, their training level, or if there prediction is based off dark magic or proven science. Basically, we create a betting pool focused around next week’s weather. Frankly, if people place money on when Paris Hilton gets out of jail they should be willing to do the same regarding something *slightly* more important.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Compare the guesses to the actual weather. Give the participates the ability to collaborate with one another and collectively learn. Award those accounts with the closest predictions a positive feedback rating and prizes. Finally, create a new weather model that looks at the weighted average emphasizing the accounts that have a proven track record. I’d be willing to bet that the results would be comparable to any of our existing million dollar models. Accurate weather prediction and positive media attention at the same time!
Posted by hackshaven on 03 Jul 2007 at 6:11 am under noaa | No Comments
Speaking of government involvement in virtual worlds, check out today’s announcement:
“There will be a U.S. Federal Government consortium organizational meeting for Second Life in Washington DC, July 11th from 1:00-4:00 at the National Defense University. The consortium hopes to find ways to share resources, work collaboratively on projects, streamline funding and contracting processes, etc. Eric Hackathorn from NOAA has agreed to present to the group on the processes NOAA used to get up and running in Second Life, where they are now, and where they are headed. Also invited is a representative from OPM to discuss a process for contracting through OPM where the government could create joint or individual project contracts for Second Life and virtual worlds. In addition, we can also begin to plan a one-day event for the first part of November.”
I should probably spend a little time preparing for that presentation…
